The Pentagon Thinks So Too

See, the DoD and I, we think alike (sort of) (Via. The Marmot)

WASHINGTON, May 23 (Yonhap) — China is not using all its influence to rid North Korea of nuclear weapons, a report from the Department of Defense said Tuesday.

The annual report, titled “The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China,” also said Beijing must weigh its response to a conceivable North Korean collapse.

As in previous versions, the report reaffirms that China publicly supports a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

Beijing is the host of six-party talks, bringing together South and North Korea, the U.S., Russia and Japan to talk about removing all nuclear weapons and programs from the peninsula.

“China has unique potential, due to historical ties and geographical proximity, to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions,” said the report.

But this year, the report adds, “China has not fully leveraged its close ties with Pyongyang to stem North Korean nuclear ambitions.”
The six-party talks reopened in summer last year after more than a year in hiatus, and in September reached an agreement for North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions in return for diplomatic recognition and economic aid.

But the negotiations have stalled again, with Pyongyang demanding Washington lift punitive steps against a Macau bank the U.S. accused of laundering money for North Korea.

China, an ideological ally and a main aid donor to North Korea, puts priority in keeping its neighbor regime stable, afraid that a sudden collapse would jeopardize its own border security and economy.

The report, issued since 2002, talks for the first time about contingencies in North Korea and China’s possible reaction to it.

“A failure to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, combined with that country’s increasingly perilous economic conditions, could produce instability on the Korean Peninsula or a collapse of the North Korean regime,” the report said.

“In such a contingency, China could face a choice between a unilateral and multilateral response,” it said, suggesting Beijing could try to take control of the situation on its own.

A diplomatic observer, declining to be named, said he sees the addition as an expression of hope on the U.S. part.

“It reflects U.S. expectations that China will make a positive decision in case of such a contingency on the Korean Peninsula,” he said.

The difference is that I argued that North Koreans will voluntarily join China in the event of a regime collapse, while this report suggests that China may take control regardless. I’m sure this is relief for the average South Korean who does not want to bear the costs of reunification.